Found this on Pajamas Media a while back.  Can't let an article on the Heartland, especially the Upper Great Lakes Region, go without comment but I think he pretty much nails it.  Not exactly a deep analysis but interesting nonetheless.  He's so wrong about cheese curds I can't tell you, but I'm not sure it makes his entire opinion suspect.

Upper Midwest Politics — As Blue as the Great Lakes

His conclusion:

In my final analysis, after four days and 2,200 miles through these three states, I believe Obama, like Kerry in 2004, will keep them as blue as the splendid Great Lakes, with Michigan likely being the closest. Though they’ll be close, there are too many Democrats — not willing to be wooed by McCain’s centrism or turned off by Obama’s inexperience — in the major cities, suburbs, in college and river towns, for Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota to flip, even in 2008.

Sad, and probably true, but not if I can help it...

I'm not sure I agree Michigan will be closest, especially if McCain taps MN Gov. Pawlenty as his running mate.  One thing he missed completely about Wisconsin, and to some extent Minnesota, the ones who elected Jesse Ventura Governor, is that we love our mavericks.  In my mind McCains close association with Feingold is a reason to vote against him but Feingold is very popular here so it might actually help.  Because of his close ties to McCain fence-sitting Feingold loyalists can vote against his presidential endorsement.  One hopes.

He really doesn't elaborate on the college campus / blue vote pattern here in Wisconsin but it is exactly what won it for Kerry in 2004.  Platteville, River Falls, LaCrosse, Oshkosh, Eau Claire, you name it, he got it.  Makes me wonder whether Democrats actually planned this way back when they granted land for all those rural (aka red area) campuses - - and thereafter began routinely populating the faculties with uber liberals.  A little too conspiratorial?  Maybe, but campus organization and activism for Democrats is definitely institutionalized, sophisticated, and intense, and that I am sure, is no accident.  Big campuses in little towns wield a hell of a lot of influence on the surrounding area.  Having grown up in one I know whereof I speak.